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Late Sub-EMA NO Entry

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the 15-minute SOL market, checking every 10 seconds. It buys 20 NO contracts when there are 5 minutes or less to expiry, the NO ask is at least 0.70, and Coinbase SOL price is below its 12-period one-minute EMA, but only if it holds no NO position yet, and sells the entire NO position if the NO bid falls to 0.25 or lower. Position size is capped at 20 contracts, with at most one entry per market.

Kalshi·Aug 23 to Sep 21 UTC·Created 3d ago

Net P&L

+$190

Return +952.0% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.18

Return Sharpe

Win rate

76.8%

1588 trades

Max drawdown

-$132

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.