Settlement-Hold Dual Confirmation

Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's most liquid KXSOL15M market, re-checking conditions every 10 seconds and allowing at most 50 contracts with entry prices between 0.01 and 0.99 and one entry per market. Rules run top to bottom, first match wins. Rule 1 cancels all resting orders when any order exists but position size is zero. Rule 2 buys 50 YES contracts when flat, SOL's 5-minute change is at least 0.0015 with positive 1-minute velocity, BTC's 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity are both positive, expiry is 3 to 10 minutes away, spread is at most 0.03, and the YES best ask is between 0.35 and 0.65. Rule 3 mirrors this for NO: SOL's 5-minute change at most -0.0015 with negative velocity, BTC change and velocity both negative, same expiry window and spread cap, and the NO best ask between 0.35 and 0.65. Rule 4 sells everything once time to expiry is zero or less.

Kalshi·Sep 19 to Oct 19 UTC·Created 8d ago

Net P&L

+$1,872

Return +3744.1% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.88

Return Sharpe

Win rate

64.5%

574 trades

Max drawdown

-$189

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.