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Position-Graded Profit Ratchet

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's KXBTC15M bitcoin market, checking conditions every 10 seconds with a 40-contract cap. It buys YES or NO in 20-contract lots when bitcoin's price, moving averages, and short-term momentum line up (rules 8-15), but only while holding 18 contracts or fewer. It exits by selling everything when unrealized profit or loss crosses thresholds that vary by position size (rules 2-7), and skips entirely at the 40-contract limit (rule 1).

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 22·Created 26d ago

Net P&L

+$893

Return +2231.9% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.65

Return Sharpe

Win rate

60.7%

1220 trades

Max drawdown

-$129

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.