Velocity-Confirmed Tiered Exits

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This Kalshi strategy trades the KXXRP15M series every 10 seconds, capped at 50 contracts with yes prices 0.01–0.99. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match fires. It cancels all orders if orders exist with no position, skips if position exceeds 50, and sells all for per-fill profit gates: 7.5 at 1–12 contracts (price 0.10–0.90), 12.5 at 13–25 (price 0.10–0.90), 25 at 26–37, 37.5 at 38+. Stop gates sell all at losses of 12.5 (1–12), 25 (13–25), 30 (26–37), 37.5 (38+). Entries of 12 contracts: buy yes when XRP price is above 1h VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5m change over 0.001, velocity positive, price 0.35–0.65, spread ≤0.015; buy no on the mirror. Buy yes on 5m change over 0.0015 with positive velocity, price 0.20–0.80, spread ≤0.015; buy no on the mirror. Within 5 minutes of expiry, buy yes at price 0.40–0.60 with positive change/velocity, price above VWAP, EMA above 20-period SMA, spread ≤0.015; buy no on the mirror. Also within 5 minutes, buy yes at price ≥0.88 with spread ≤0.03, 15m high over 15 and price over 15; buy no at price ≤0.12 with spread ≤0.03, 15m low over 15 and price over 15.

Kalshi·Sep 19 to Oct 19 UTC·Created 8d ago

Net P&L

+$1,430

Return +2859.5% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

0.33

Return Sharpe

Win rate

60.6%

7718 trades

Max drawdown

-$741

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.