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Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.
This strategy trades the Kalshi market KXBTC15M, checking for opportunities every 10 seconds. It buys YES or NO contracts in 500‑contract increments when real‑time Bitcoin price, moving averages, volatility, and time to expiry meet directional thresholds, and the contract price and spread are within allowed ranges. Positions are sold entirely when unrealized gains or losses hit tiered values that scale with the position size, and the system never holds more than 2,000 contracts.
Over the May 14 to Jun 11 window, this custom strategy on Kalshi turned in +$512,264 of simulated profit (+25613.2% on its configured risk capital), at a 2.11 Sharpe. It placed 5542 simulated trades and won 68.3% of them — a high hit rate — against shallow worst peak-to-trough drawdown of -$2,626.
Under the hood it simulated 1653 Bitcoin (BTC) markets, closing 1169 winning and 543 losing positions after $34,380 in modeled fees, an average of 184.7 trades a day. That trade-by-trade detail, the equity curve above, and the full rule set below are what separate this page from a one-line leaderboard entry.
Net PnL is the headline here; the Sharpe is unannualized over this short window, so read it as a within-sample texture of the equity curve rather than an industry-standard risk score. Because every figure comes from a single 30-day historical replay, it is best treated as a hypothesis to pressure-test rather than a forecast — the same rules can behave very differently once live fills, API latency, and shifting volatility enter the picture.
This backtest runs against Bitcoin (BTC) markets on Kalshi's 15-minute series across 30 days (May 14 to Jun 11). These are short-horizon contracts that open and settle on a fixed 15-minute cadence, so the strategy is measured across many independent events rather than one long trend. Rules are evaluated once per 15-minute candle, and a signal can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle at top-of-book prices, net of Kalshi-style taker fees.
Compare other Bitcoin (BTC) 15-minute strategies backtested on Turbine: