Size-Bucketed Exit Gates

Starter is $29/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This Kalshi strategy trades the KXBTC15M series, evaluating every 10 seconds. Rules are checked top to bottom and the first match fires. Rules 1-3 are per-fill profit gates: for positions of 200 contracts or fewer, it sells all when unrealized profit exceeds 12 and the price is between 0.10 and 0.90; for 201-600 contracts, it sells all when profit exceeds 18 within the same price range; for 601 or more, it sells all when profit exceeds 50. Rules 4-6 are per-fill stop gates: sell all at a loss below -40 (up to 200 contracts), below -60 (201-600), or below -150 (601+). Rules 7-14 only open new positions when time to expiry is 7 minutes or less, each buying 25 contracts (YES or NO) based on Bitcoin price versus its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period EMA, 5-minute change, 1-minute velocity, and related high, low, and 20-period average comparisons, with price bands from 0.12-0.88 and spread caps of 0.015 or 0.03. Position size is capped at 999 contracts, YES prices are bounded 0.01-0.99, and entry spend is capped at 25,000 per market, with spent budget not released by later sells; a 200 max-loss limit can halt and liquidate only this strategy's attributed inventory.

Kalshi·Oct 4 to Nov 3 UTC·Created 4h ago

Net P&L

+$23,713

Return +1582.0% on Risk Capital

Sharpe

1.20

Return Sharpe

Win rate

80.4%

28350 trades

Max drawdown

-$1,043

Peak to Trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting Capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past Performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not Financial Advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.