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On Kalshi's KXDOGE15M market, this strategy evaluates every 10 seconds with a 15-contract position cap and YES prices from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and stop at the first match. If position size exceeds 15, it skips. Exits sell all held contracts, gated by position-size tier: sizes 5 or fewer, 6–10, and 11+ pair with separate profit thresholds (over 3, 5, and 8) and loss thresholds (under -6, -10, and -15); the smallest tiers also require price between 0.10–0.90 for profits or 0.15–0.85 for losses, and the largest profit tier has no price bound. Entries, all size 15, need time to expiry of 5 minutes or less. Dogecoin signals come from Coinbase DOGE-USD, refreshed every 5 seconds: price above or below 1-hour VWAP and 1-minute EMA12, 5-minute change above 0.001 or below -0.001, and 1-minute velocity sign, with price 0.35–0.65 and spread at most 0.015. Faster momentum needs 5-minute change above 0.0015/below -0.0015, velocity sign, price 0.20–0.80, same spread cap. Shorter entries need price 0.40–0.60, change and velocity signs, price versus VWAP, and EMA12 versus SMA20. Late entries buy YES at price 0.88+ or NO at 0.12 or below, spread up to 0.03.
Over the Sep 3 to Oct 3 window, this custom strategy on Kalshi turned in +$598 of simulated profit (+3985.8% on its configured risk capital), at a 0.47 Sharpe. It placed 3561 simulated trades and won 84.2% of them — a high hit rate — against shallow worst peak-to-trough drawdown of -$143.
Under the hood it simulated 2701 Dogecoin (DOGE) markets, closing 1498 winning and 282 losing positions after $217 in modeled fees, an average of 118.7 trades a day. That trade-by-trade detail, the equity curve above, and the full rule set below are what separate this page from a one-line leaderboard entry.
Net PnL is the headline here; the Sharpe is unannualized over this short window, so read it as a within-sample texture of the equity curve rather than an industry-standard risk score. Because every figure comes from a single 30-day historical replay, it is best treated as a hypothesis to pressure-test rather than a forecast — the same rules can behave very differently once live fills, API latency, and shifting volatility enter the picture.
This backtest runs against Dogecoin (DOGE) markets on Kalshi's 15-minute series across 30 days (Sep 3 to Oct 3). These are short-horizon contracts that open and settle on a fixed 15-minute cadence, so the strategy is measured across many independent events rather than one long trend. Rules are evaluated once per 15-minute candle, and a signal can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle at top-of-book prices, net of Kalshi-style taker fees.
Compare other Dogecoin (DOGE) 15-minute strategies backtested on Turbine: