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Confirmed Trend Pyramid Adds

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On Kalshi's XRP 15-minute market, this checks every 10 seconds. It buys 5 YES or NO contracts when price, spread and XRP trend conditions line up, adds 5 more on a winning position, and sells everything on small or larger losses or once a gain exceeds 0.90. It holds at most 10 contracts.

Kalshi·Jul 26 to Aug 24·Created 24d ago
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Net P&L
+$21
Return +207.9% on risk capital
Sharpe
0.15
Return Sharpe
Win rate
42.4%
202 trades
Max drawdown
-$18
Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology
Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital
Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance
Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice
Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.