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Late EMA NO Stop

Starter is $19/month with 10 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.

This strategy trades Kalshi's 15-minute XRP market and checks conditions every 10 seconds, with positions capped at 15 contracts and YES prices limited to 0.05 through 0.95. It first sells any existing NO position if the NO bid falls to 0.25 or below, then otherwise buys 15 NO contracts when five minutes or less remain, the NO ask is at least 0.70, Coinbase XRP's price is below its 12-period one-minute EMA, and no position is currently held. Only one entry per market is allowed.

Kalshi·Aug 22 to Sep 21 UTC·Created 4d ago

Net P&L

+$260

Return +1736.1% on risk capital

Sharpe

0.29

Return Sharpe

Win rate

78.2%

1572 trades

Max drawdown

-$179

Peak to trough

A few notes on these numbers

Methodology: Backtests replay supported historical market data, usually a 30-day Studio window, and evaluate strategy rules on the available cadence. Signals can fill no earlier than the next tradable step. Taker fills use top-of-book prices or available L2 depth, with Kalshi-style fees where modeled. Queue position, latency, and future liquidity are not fully modeled. Simulated P&L is net of modeled fees over the window.
Starting capital: Kalshi backtests use the strategy's configured max position as the risk-capital denominator. Return is computed from that configured capital, while total P&L is still shown in dollars.
Past performance: Backtested results are hypothetical. They are derived from historical data and do not reflect live execution risks like slippage beyond the orderbook, partial fills, API latency, or venue outages. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Not financial advice: Nothing on this page is investment, legal, or tax advice. Prediction markets carry real risk of loss. Only trade with money you can afford to lose, and do your own research before deploying any strategy live.