← Strategies
Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.
On Kalshi's KXXRP15M series, evaluated every 10 seconds with a 100-contract cap and 0.01–0.99 price bounds. Rules run top-to-bottom, first match fires. Entry orders are immediate-or-cancel, 25 contracts each: buy yes when XRP price exceeds both its 1-hour VWAP and 12-period 1-minute EMA, 5-minute change above 0.001, 1-minute velocity positive, yes ask 0.35–0.65, spread at most 0.015; buy no on the mirror condition with no ask 0.35–0.65. Momentum entries use a 0.0015 change threshold and ask range 0.20–0.80. With 5 minutes or less to expiry: buy yes if yes ask 0.40–0.60 with rising price/velocity above VWAP and EMA above SMA; buy no mirrored; or buy yes if yes ask at least 0.88, spread at most 0.03, high_15m and price above 15; buy no if no ask at most 0.12, spread at most 0.03, low_15m and price above 15. Exits are tiered by position size: at 25 or fewer, sell on unrealized PnL above 15 (price 0.10–0.90) or below -25; at 30–50, sell above 25 (price 0.10–0.90) or below -50; at 55–75, sell above 50 or below -60; at 80 or more, sell above 75 or below -75. Sizes above 100 are skipped.
Over the Sep 15 to Oct 15 window, this custom strategy on Kalshi turned in +$1,871 of simulated profit (+1871.0% on its configured risk capital), at a 0.27 Sharpe. It placed 8272 simulated trades and won 60.0% of them — a high hit rate — against moderate worst peak-to-trough drawdown of -$962.
Under the hood it simulated 2657 XRP markets, closing 1067 winning and 711 losing positions after $2,015 in modeled fees, an average of 275.7 trades a day. That trade-by-trade detail, the equity curve above, and the full rule set below are what separate this page from a one-line leaderboard entry.
Net PnL is the headline here; the Sharpe is unannualized over this short window, so read it as a within-sample texture of the equity curve rather than an industry-standard risk score. Because every figure comes from a single 30-day historical replay, it is best treated as a hypothesis to pressure-test rather than a forecast — the same rules can behave very differently once live fills, API latency, and shifting volatility enter the picture.
This backtest runs against XRP markets on Kalshi's 15-minute series across 30 days (Sep 15 to Oct 15). These are short-horizon contracts that open and settle on a fixed 15-minute cadence, so the strategy is measured across many independent events rather than one long trend. Rules are evaluated once per 15-minute candle, and a signal can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle at top-of-book prices, net of Kalshi-style taker fees.
Compare other XRP 15-minute strategies backtested on Turbine: