← Strategies
Starter is $49/month with 30 deploys per week. Upgrade as you grow.
On Kalshi's KXXRP15M market, this strategy checks every 10 seconds and holds at most 100 contracts, with prices bounded from 0.01 to 0.99. Rules run top to bottom and the first match ends that tick: if position size exceeds 100 it skips; otherwise tiered exits sell the entire position when unrealized profit passes 15, 25, 50, or 75 dollars depending on whether size is 25 or fewer, 26 to 50, 51 to 75, or 76 and up, and when unrealized loss passes -25, -50, -60, or -75 across those same size bands. Entry rules each buy 25 contracts, either YES or NO, sent immediately or canceled, when XRP's price sits above or below its one-hour average and 12-period one-minute average alongside matching 5-minute change and 1-minute velocity, or on stronger 5-minute moves, or in the final 5 minutes under tighter momentum and spread conditions.
Over the Sep 15 to Oct 15 window, this custom strategy on Kalshi turned in +$1,751 of simulated profit (+1751.1% on its configured risk capital), at a 0.25 Sharpe. It placed 8327 simulated trades and won 60.3% of them — a high hit rate — against moderate worst peak-to-trough drawdown of -$922.
Under the hood it simulated 2657 XRP markets, closing 1076 winning and 709 losing positions after $2,026 in modeled fees, an average of 277.6 trades a day. That trade-by-trade detail, the equity curve above, and the full rule set below are what separate this page from a one-line leaderboard entry.
Net PnL is the headline here; the Sharpe is unannualized over this short window, so read it as a within-sample texture of the equity curve rather than an industry-standard risk score. Because every figure comes from a single 30-day historical replay, it is best treated as a hypothesis to pressure-test rather than a forecast — the same rules can behave very differently once live fills, API latency, and shifting volatility enter the picture.
This backtest runs against XRP markets on Kalshi's 15-minute series across 30 days (Sep 15 to Oct 15). These are short-horizon contracts that open and settle on a fixed 15-minute cadence, so the strategy is measured across many independent events rather than one long trend. Rules are evaluated once per 15-minute candle, and a signal can fill no earlier than the next tradable candle at top-of-book prices, net of Kalshi-style taker fees.
Compare other XRP 15-minute strategies backtested on Turbine: