Hypothetical results, not investment advice. All performance shown is from backtests on historical data and should be assumed to be overfit. Past performance, real or simulated, does not predict future results. Ojo Network Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, or commodity trading advisor. Trading prediction markets carries substantial risk, including total loss of funds. See the full Terms of Service before deploying.
Compare every parameter variant, sorted by net p&l. Open a row for the full backtest detail.
Hypothetical results, not investment advice. All performance shown is from backtests on historical data and should be assumed to be overfit. Past performance, real or simulated, does not predict future results. Ojo Network Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, or commodity trading advisor. Trading prediction markets carries substantial risk, including total loss of funds. See the full Terms of Service before deploying.
Range
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks every 60 seconds, buying 40 YES contracts post-only when the Chicago temp is above 71, the observation is fresh, price is between 0.15 and 0.5, spread is at least 0.02, and expiry is over 45 minutes away. It cancels or sells out on stale data, thin spreads, low or high prices, near expiry, or a small loss. Position limit is 100 contracts.
Net P&L +$51+50.9% return
Sharpe 0.32
Win 54.5%
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi, this strategy checks every 60 seconds and, if Chicago temperature is above 71, the reading is fresh, price is 0.16 to 0.49, and spread is at least 0.02, buys 40 yes contracts at best bid plus 0.01, up to 100 total. It exits on temperature or timing conditions.
Net P&L +$51+50.9% return
Sharpe 0.32
Win 54.5%
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi's Chicago high-temperature market, it checks every 60 seconds. It buys 36 YES contracts only when the observed temp is above 71F, fresh, price is between 0.15 and 0.50, spread is at least 0.02, and over 45 minutes remain. It cancels or sells if the temp drops, data goes stale, price exits that band, time runs short, or the loss hits 3.
Net P&L +$48+48.2% return
Sharpe 0.32
Win 54.5%
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks every 60 seconds and, if Chicago's temperature is above 71 with a fresh observation, buys 18 YES contracts near the best bid, up to 100 contracts total. It sells everything if the next hour's temperature tops 72 with price above 0.66, under 45 minutes remain, or losses hit 3.
Net P&L +$26+26.4% return
Sharpe 0.30
Win 54.5%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
Trades Kalshi Chicago high-temperature markets, checking every 60 seconds with a 100-contract cap. It buys 5 YES contracts post-only when the temperature is above 71, the reading is fresh, price sits between 0.25 and 0.35, spread is at least 0.02, and expiry is over 45 minutes away. It sells everything at expiry under 45 minutes, when hour-ahead temperature tops 72 with price above 0.66, or on a 3-point unrealized loss; otherwise it cancels.
Net P&L +$7+6.9% return
Sharpe 0.26
Win 42.9%small sample
Aug 20
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
This strategy trades Chicago high-temperature markets on Kalshi, checking conditions every 60 seconds. It cancels all orders if the current temperature is 71F or below, the observation is 15 minutes old or older, the price leaves the 0.15 to 0.50 range, the spread is under 0.02, expiry is within 45 minutes, or a position exists. Otherwise, with a fresh reading above 71F and no position, it posts a small two-contract YES buy just above the best bid; it sells everything if the next-hour temperature exceeds 72F and price is above 0.60, near expiry, or unrealized loss passes 3.
Net P&L +$6+5.7% return
Sharpe 0.37
Win 54.5%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
This strategy trades Kalshi's Chicago high-temperature market, checking every 60 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts at the best bid plus one cent when the observed temperature is above 71, the reading is under 15 minutes old, price sits between 0.15 and 0.60, the spread is at least 0.02, expiry is over 45 minutes away, and no position is open. It cancels all orders or sells the full position if any entry condition breaks, the hourly temperature exceeds 72 with price above 0.66, expiry drops under 45 minutes, or unrealized loss passes 3, capped at 100 contracts.
Net P&L +$6+5.7% return
Sharpe 0.37
Win 54.5%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
Trades Kalshi Chicago high-temperature markets, checking every 60 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts post-only near the best bid when the temperature is above 71, the reading is fresh, price sits between 0.16 and 0.49, spread is at least 0.02, and expiry is over 45 minutes away. All positions are cancelled or sold if temperature, price, freshness, or expiry conditions change, or if unrealized loss exceeds 3.
Net P&L +$6+5.7% return
Sharpe 0.37
Win 54.5%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks every 60 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts at the best bid plus one cent, post-only, when the Chicago temp is above 71, the reading is under 15 minutes old, price is between 0.16 and 0.39, spread is at least 0.02, over 45 minutes remain, and it holds nothing. It exits by selling everything if the last hour's temp exceeds 72 with price above 0.66, under 45 minutes remain, or unrealized loss passes 3; otherwise it cancels.
Net P&L +$5+4.7% return
Sharpe 0.31
Win 50.0%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi, this strategy checks the Chicago high-temperature market every 60 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts post-only at the best bid plus 0.01 when the temperature is above 71, the observation is under 900 seconds old, price is between 0.05 and 0.40, spread is at least 0.02, expiry is over 45 minutes away, and no position is held; otherwise it cancels all orders. It exits by selling everything when the one-hour temperature exceeds 72 with price above 0.66, or when expiry is under 45 minutes, or unrealized loss exceeds 3, with a 100-contract limit.
Net P&L +$4+4.3% return
Sharpe 0.28
Win 41.7%small sample
Aug 21
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks Chicago high-temperature markets every 60 seconds, capped at 100 contracts. It buys 2 YES contracts at the best bid plus one cent when the temperature is above 71, data is fresh, price sits between 0.25 and 0.40, and expiry is over 45 minutes away, otherwise it cancels. It sells all on a hot next-hour reading above 72 with price over 0.66, near expiry, or a loss under -3.
Net P&L +$2+2.5% return
Sharpe 0.18
Win 44.4%small sample
Aug 20
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.
1m loop · max 100 · floor 0.08 · ceil 0.94
On Kalshi it checks every 60 seconds. It buys 2 YES contracts at the best bid plus one cent when the Chicago temperature is above 71, the reading is fresh, price sits between 0.25 and 0.35, the spread is at least 0.02, more than 45 minutes remain, and no position is open. It exits everything near expiry, below 45 minutes, or on a loss.
Net P&L +$2+2.3% return
Sharpe 0.20
Win 42.9%small sample
Aug 20
25d Jul 26 to Aug 20
Kalshi
I analyzed this as a hypothetical backtest, not a live track record. Return uses configured max-position risk capital, not account bankroll. Turbine is not a registered investment advisor or futures commission merchant and does not provide personalized advice. Prediction markets carry risk of loss.