Prediction market strategies & backtests

Hypothetical results, not investment advice. All performance shown is from backtests on historical data and should be assumed to be overfit. Past performance, real or simulated, does not predict future results. Ojo Network Inc. is not a registered investment adviser, broker-dealer, futures commission merchant, introducing broker, or commodity trading advisor. Trading prediction markets carries substantial risk, including total loss of funds. See the full Terms of Service before deploying.

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Strategy variants

Forecast-Hugging Heat Entry

30s loop · max 30 · floor 0.05 · ceil 0.95
This strategy trades Kalshi New York daily high temperature markets, checking conditions every 30 seconds. It buys 5 YES contracts when the current temperature is at least 78F, is within 2 degrees of the forecast high, and the price sits between 0.10 and 0.95. It sells everything if the position has lost more than 20 dollars, the forecast gap drops below -3 degrees, or an hour remains before expiry; positions are capped at 30 contracts and four entries per market.
Net P&L +$1+3.3% return
Sharpe 0.07
Win 46.2%
Sep 5
30d Aug 6 to Sep 5
Kalshi

Strategies

Prediction market strategies & backtests

Forecast-Hugging Heat Entry