Understand the price / Free calculator
Implied Probability Calculator
Before comparing a price with your own view, translate it into a probability. Implied probability is the win rate needed to break even at those odds before costs; it is not the actual chance an outcome will happen.
Your inputs
Instant calculationChanging formats resets odds to even money.
Your results
Based on your inputs. Before fees, rounding, and venue-specific settlement rules.
How to use the implied probability calculator
Enter the offered price in any supported format. The calculator takes the reciprocal of the decimal odds to find the break-even probability. Compare that number with an independently estimated chance of winning.
Break-even probability (%) = 100 / decimal oddsA worked example
At −200, decimal odds are 1.50 and the break-even probability is 66.67%. At +150, decimal odds are 2.50 and the break-even probability is 40.00%. A higher payout requires a lower win rate to break even.
What the numbers can tell you
Implied probabilities across a bookmaker’s market commonly add to more than 100%. Use the no-vig calculator to normalize both sides. That normalization still does not establish a true probability.
Frequently asked questions
Is a 60¢ contract a 60% probability?
It implies a 60% break-even probability if the winning payout is $1 and costs are zero. Fees raise the effective break-even point.
Does a high implied probability mean good value?
No. Value depends on the relationship between the offered price and a well-founded estimate of the actual probability, after accounting for costs.