Building Turbine — a platform that lets anyone create AI-powered trading bots for prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. I write about automated trading strategies, market microstructure, and how AI agents are reshaping how people trade.
Articles
- August 31, 2026Building a Prediction Market Trading Journal: Reviewing Decisions, Not Just Outcomes
People rate an identical decision far better when it happens to win (d = 1.10). The trade journal schema, calibration scoring, and Brier math that catches it.
- August 24, 2026The Kalshi Automation Stack: From Signal to Settlement
Kalshi lists 13,394 series; only 2,408 repeat on a clock. The full automation stack — signal, sizing, execution, settlement — and the seams where bots break.
- August 17, 2026Automating Strike Ladders on Kalshi: Trading Multiple Price Levels at Once
One Kalshi BTC event lists up to 188 contracts on the same underlying at the same settlement time. Here's how to automate a laddered entry across all of them.
- August 10, 2026Automating Your Exit: Timing Trades Around Kalshi Resolution Windows
Kalshi outcome determination can take 12+ hours after close, and an ambiguous contract may settle at its last traded price. Automate your exit first.
- August 3, 2026Kalshi Automated Trading: APIs, Fees, Bots & Risk Controls
Learn how Kalshi automated trading works across APIs, fee tiers, bot architecture, risk controls, sandbox testing, and regulated infrastructure.
- July 28, 2026How Many Hours Does Automation Actually Save a Kalshi Trader? (A Time-Motion Study)
A manual Kalshi routine burns roughly 21.5 hours a week. Automating the same workflow cuts it to about 4. Here's the full task-by-task breakdown, netted.
- July 21, 2026When Not to Trade: Kalshi and Polymarket Liquidity Calendar (2026)
Kalshi and Polymarket hit ~$24B monthly volume by April 2026, but liquidity isn't spread evenly. Here's when books thin out — and the filters to add.
- July 13, 2026Best Prediction Market Trading Bots: 8 Platforms Compared
Compare 8 prediction market trading bots and AI platforms for Kalshi and Polymarket, including execution, backtesting, risk controls, and venue support.
- July 10, 2026Parameter Sweeps & Permutation Testing for Prediction Markets
Test 100 strategy variants and you're ~99.4% likely to find a false positive. How Turbine's parameter sweeps and permutation tests catch it.
- July 6, 2026How Prediction Markets Resolve: Oracles & Disputes (2026)
A $160M Polymarket market flipped from YES to NO after oracle disputes. How Kalshi and Polymarket settle contracts, and how to price resolution risk.
- June 30, 2026How to Keep Your Prediction Market Bot and Funds Secure (2026)
Hackers stole $713M from crypto wallets in 2025. Here's how to secure your prediction market bot's API keys, wallet approvals, and funds.
- June 26, 2026Prediction Markets vs Options vs Sports Betting: A Trader's Comparison (2026)
Prediction markets, options, and sportsbooks all bet on outcomes — but sportsbooks keep ~9% while Kalshi takes ~1.2%. A trader's 2026 instrument comparison.
- June 22, 2026How to Hedge Real-World Risk With Prediction Markets (2026)
Businesses already transfer $192B in crop risk and $61B via catastrophe bonds. Here's how to hedge elections, Fed decisions, and weather on prediction markets.
- June 19, 2026How to Market-Make on Kalshi and Polymarket: Earn the Spread Instead of Paying It (2026)
On Kalshi, ~95% of liquidity comes from 2,000+ small market makers — some just individuals. Here's how to quote two-sided liquidity and earn the spread in 2026.
- June 15, 2026Position Sizing and Risk Management for Prediction Market Trading (2026)
Full Kelly has a 50% chance of halving your bankroll. Here's the sizing and risk math that keeps prediction-market traders solvent — with Kalshi numbers.
- June 10, 2026Why Your Prediction Market Bot Wins in Calm Markets But Dies in Volatility (And How to Fix It)
In Oct 2025, visible BTC liquidity collapsed 99.8% and spreads widened 1,321x in 40 minutes. Here's why bots die in volatility, and the vol-adjusted sizing math that survives it.
- June 6, 2026How to Run Prediction Market Bots Without Constant Monitoring (Set-and-Forget Automation)
Only 3% of alerts need immediate action. Here's how to wire prediction market bots with kill switches, anomaly alerts, and auto-reconnect to run unattended.
- May 30, 2026Does ETH Actually Lag BTC in 15-Minute Markets?
BTC and ETH are highly correlated, but a 30-day spot-candle study did not find a clean one-candle BTC-leads-ETH signal. The better test is whether prediction markets reprice slower than spot.
- May 26, 2026Why You Can't Spot Arbitrage Fast Enough on Prediction Markets (And How Bots Win at Milliseconds)
Bots extracted $40M from Polymarket arbitrage in 12 months while the average arb window collapsed to 2.7 seconds. Here's the latency stack — and what retail can still win.
- May 22, 2026We Backtested 500 Weather-Market Strategies. The Best Signal Was Not the Most Complicated One.
We tested 500 Kalshi New York temperature strategies using National Weather Service data. Most failed, but the winners had a clear pattern: weather worked best as confirmation, not contradiction.
- May 21, 2026How to Compete With AI Agents Dominating Prediction Market Trading (Build or Defend in 2026)
AI agents run 30%+ of Polymarket wallets and 14 of the top 20 most profitable accounts. Here's the build-or-defend playbook for retail in 2026.
- May 19, 2026How to Test a Prediction Market Strategy Without Losing Capital (Paper Trading Guide 2026)
Backtest Sharpe of 2.0 typically drops to 1.0-1.5 live. Here's how to paper trade Kalshi and Polymarket strategies on live data — without risking real money.
- May 18, 2026Best Kalshi Trading Bots in 2026
Compare the best Kalshi trading bots in 2026: TurbineFi, PredictEngine, and Bot for Kalshi, including workflows, testing, automation, and tradeoffs.
- May 18, 2026Best Polymarket Trading Bots in 2026
A practical guide to the best Polymarket trading bots in 2026, with a focus on strategy design, testing, execution control, and risk management.
- May 18, 2026Copy Trading vs Custom Strategy Bots for Prediction Markets
Compare copy trading vs custom strategy bots for prediction markets, including control, transparency, risk, and backtesting considerations.
- May 18, 2026Prediction Market Arbitrage Tools Compared
Explore prediction market arbitrage tools for Kalshi, Polymarket, and cross-venue execution, including backtesting, fees, fills, and risk controls.
- May 17, 2026Historical Prediction Market Data for Backtesting: Kalshi and Polymarket Sources
Find historical prediction market data for backtesting Kalshi and Polymarket strategies. Compare APIs, subgraphs, Dune, paid datasets, costs, and data traps.
- May 15, 2026Building Systematic Prediction Market Strategies From Scratch: A Quant Playbook (2026)
Renaissance Medallion returned 30% in 2024. 84% of Polymarket traders haven't profited. Here's the systematic playbook to bridge that gap — signal to deployment, in 5 steps.
- May 11, 2026Most Affordable Prediction Market Trading Bots for Small Accounts (Under $1K) in 2026
69% of Polymarket users trade under $1K. Here's which bots actually make sense for that — free open-source SDKs, $20/mo starter tools, and the breakeven math for each.
- May 9, 2026Why Prediction-Market Backtests Fail: 3 Hidden Traps
Learn why prediction-market backtests fail through overfitting, regime changes, and execution assumptions, plus a five-step validation process.
- May 7, 2026Why You're Losing Money to Bots and Insiders on Kalshi (And How to Fight Back)
Bots trade 89 times a day vs 2.2 for humans. 0.1% of Polymarket accounts captured 67% of profits. Here's why retail loses on prediction markets, and what to do.
- May 5, 2026Does Coinbase Spot Lead Kalshi BTC? We Tested 100 Strategies.
100 Kalshi BTC 15-minute strategies, each using Coinbase BTC-USD as an external signal. In this 30-day backtest, momentum beat reversion and 78 strategies made money.
- May 4, 2026How to Sign Up for Kalshi
A 5-minute walkthrough of creating a Kalshi account, verifying your identity, and funding it. Everything you need before deploying your first Turbine bot.
- May 4, 2026Is There a Tool That Automates Trading Across Both Kalshi and Polymarket? (2026)
Cross-platform automation across Kalshi and Polymarket: dashboards, alerts, custom bots, and AI-powered execution platforms compared.
- May 3, 2026What Platform Lets Me Automate Trades Across Multiple Prediction Markets? (2026)
Cross-market prediction trading platforms compared: TurbineFi, direct APIs, OctoBot, and copy trading for traders running strategies on Kalshi and Polymarket.
- May 2, 2026Is There a Bot That Can Backtest Strategies on Kalshi and Polymarket? (2026)
Yes — backtesting bots for Kalshi and Polymarket exist. Here's what to look for in fill simulation, fee modeling, event normalization, and deployment.
- May 1, 2026How to Automate Cross-Platform Arbitrage Between Prediction Markets in 2026
Cross-platform arbitrage between Kalshi and Polymarket: how to automate hedged trades inside the 2.7-second window manual traders can't catch.
- April 30, 2026How to Trade Kalshi 15-Minute Crypto Contracts and Perpetual Futures
Kalshi launched crypto perpetual futures April 27. Here's how 15-minute crypto contracts work, why bots dominate them, and how they compare to Binance and CME.
- April 29, 2026Kalshi 15-Min BTC Strategies: 5,000 Backtests
We tested 4,904 Kalshi 15-minute BTC strategies across 41.8 million simulated trades. See which approaches worked, failed, and why.
- April 27, 2026How to Trade Kalshi Economic Event Contracts (CPI, Fed, Jobs Reports) in 2026
The Federal Reserve published research saying Kalshi's macro forecasts beat traditional methods. Here's how to trade CPI, Fed, and jobs report contracts.
- April 21, 2026How to Build a Kalshi Trading Bot in 2026
A complete guide to building a Kalshi trading bot in 2026: the Python and API approach, the AI-powered no-code approach with Turbine, and everything in between.
- April 20, 2026We backtested 1,000 automated bot strategies on Kalshi
We generated 1,000 trading strategies and backtested every one against 30 days of Kalshi's 15-minute BTC markets. Here's what won, what lost, and the patterns behind both.
- April 20, 2026How to Backtest Prediction Market Strategies Before Risking Real Money
84% of prediction market traders lose money. Backtesting can change that. Learn where to get historical data, avoid common pitfalls, and validate strategies on Kalshi.
- April 19, 2026Your Edge Isn't Intuition. It's the Data You Wire In.
A walk through every data field Turbine Studio can condition a strategy on. Live price feeds, weather observations, and derived indicators across two providers.
- April 19, 2026Five Strategy Archetypes. Pick One. Know Why It Breaks.
The five families every prediction-market strategy falls into. What each assumes, when each wins, when each breaks, and how to tell which one your idea is.
- April 16, 2026Sports Prediction Markets: A Trader's Guide to Kalshi and Polymarket Sports Contracts
Sports contracts drive 89% of Kalshi's revenue. Learn what's available, how they differ from sportsbooks, and what real trader returns look like in 2026.
- April 13, 2026Prediction Market Arbitrage: Strategies & Risks
Learn how prediction market arbitrage works across Kalshi and Polymarket, including strategy types, fees, fill risk, latency, and settlement differences.
- April 3, 2026Vibe Code Your Trading Ideas on Kalshi
What it actually looks like to build a prediction market trading bot with natural language — no coding experience required.
- March 31, 2026A Claude-Powered Bot Turned $1 into $3.3M on Polymarket. Here's What That Means.
An AI agent reportedly turned $1 into $3.3M on Polymarket. Over 30% of wallets now use bots. Here's what's happening and how to build your own.
- March 27, 2026Why AI Agents Are the Best Prediction Market Traders
Prediction markets reward fast information processing, emotional discipline, and 24/7 availability. Here's why AI agents have a structural edge.
- March 24, 2026Building a Prediction Market Bot the Hard Way vs. the Easy Way
Build a prediction market bot from scratch with Python or use Turbine Studio's no-code approach. An honest step-by-step comparison of both paths.
- March 20, 20265 Prediction Market Strategies You Can Automate Today
Five automatable prediction market strategies for Kalshi — from mean reversion to news-driven momentum. Describe in plain English, deploy as a bot.
- March 17, 2026How to Make Money on Prediction Markets: What Actually Works in 2026
A realistic guide to making money on prediction markets — edge types, strategy frameworks, risk management, and why automated trading dominates.
- March 13, 2026Prediction Market Regulation in 2026: What Traders Need to Know
From the CFTC v. Kalshi ruling to new platforms launching, prediction markets are going mainstream. What the regulatory landscape means for traders.
- March 10, 2026From Prediction Market to Vibe Coding Platform
How TurbineFi went from a hedging product to an AI-powered trading bot studio — and what we learned along the way.
- March 6, 2026Getting Started with Turbine Studio
A walk through the first five minutes of Turbine Studio. What Starter includes, and how to go from signup to a running bot.
- March 3, 2026How to Build a Polymarket Trading Bot in 2026
A complete guide to Polymarket prediction bot development in 2026: Python tutorial, API setup, strategy logic, risk controls, and the no-code Turbine route.
- February 27, 2026Polymarket vs Kalshi: Which Prediction Market Platform Should You Use in 2026?
Polymarket vs Kalshi compared: fees, markets, regulation, API access, liquidity, and which platform is better for traders and bots in 2026.
- February 24, 2026What Are Prediction Markets? A Complete Beginner's Guide (2026)
Prediction markets let you trade on real-world events like elections, weather, and economic data. Learn how they work and how to start trading.